Link to downloadable PDF: First NAVIGATOR Forecasting Report
By Alberto Tagliapietra (GMF)
The multilateral system is undergoing a profound transformation as traditional governance frameworks face mounting challenges. The post-World War II multilateral order, built on intergovernmental organizations with at its core the United Nation system, is being increasingly tested by rising geopolitical competition, growing nationalist sentiments, and institutional inefficiencies. The once-dominant model of large-scale multilateral cooperation is being challenged by more flexible, issue-specific, and often informal governance structures. The EU, historically a key defender of multilateralism, is compelled to navigate an increasingly fragmented and complex global landscape where its influence and ability to shape international governance are under pressure.
This report explores the changing nature of multilateralism, the challenges and opportunities that this context presents to the EU, and delve into three potential scenarios for the multilateral system in 2030 and the EU’s evolving role in it. In the first scenario, global consensus leads to a reform of the multilateral institutions, fostering international cooperation. In this conciliatory international context, the EU maintains its current role in the international system, and goes through a process of enlargement. In the second scenario, partially unsuccessful institutional reform of multilateral institutions results in fragmented international governance, bilateral tension among geopolitical actors is on the rise, and the EU tries to navigate geopolitical shifts through profound institutional changes that allows it to become a beacon for multilateral statecraft. Finally, in the third scenario, multilateralism collapses and major geopolitical actors try to assert their dominance through hard power. Weak global institutions and rising economic instability fuel geopolitical fragmentation and the EU, divided by surging nationalism and strategic irrelevance, struggles to maintain its influence.
